The Tortoise Time Machine: How fast is fast?

I’m a numbers guy. And from that start, I’m a value guy. When I go to choose a nice Rioja, the wine guy asks what price range I’m looking at. I say price isn’t an issue for me, it’s value that I want. For me, a $40 bottle needs to be twice as good as a $20 bottle. And since this is a private aviation blog, then with all things being equal, a 400 knot airplane should be worth twice what a 200 knot airplane is, right?

No.

And all things are never equal.

Since I’m based around PDX, it’s relevant to use the 737 for comparison, as it’s used by United, Southwest, and Alaska serving Portland passengers. It typically flies at 520mph. But in the broader picture why are you flying? Why not take the bus or train? Your answer is probably somewhere on the scale between convenience and time savings. Hold on to that for a paragraph or two.

When you think of a private airplane used for business, you may think of a Gulfstream or a far smaller lighter Learjet. It may surprise you to learn that the median business airplane is actually a twin turboprop, which typically flies at 310mph. What’s the appeal of flying in such a slow plane, given the cost per mile is a multiple of what you’d pay for a pair of first class seats on the same route flying over 200mph faster? The answer comes from the same calculus you use to justify flying on an airliner versus a bus in the first place: convenience and time savings.

Stick with me here—remember, I’m a numbers guy.

If you’re a business principal, you do more than one important thing in a typical business day. If a decision makes it up to your level, the issue ranks up there on both difficulty and importance. If the needs of the business dictate that you travel, then to schedule you look at the flexibility of the meeting time, then flight times, and then build in whatever margin of error you’re comfortable with.

For a 10am meeting in Sausalito you expect to take two hours, when do you leave your house, and when can you get back to the office? With a 70 minute margin of safety on the near end and a 35 minute margin of safety on the far end, you’ll be on the 6:00 departure from PDX, returning on the 2:35 flight from SFO, landing PDX at 4:20pm. If you leave your house 90 minutes before you flight at 5:30am, your two hour meeting is going to cost you twelve and a half hours.

Ouch. You must really need to be in Sausalito. Looks like you’re only doing one important thing that day. That’s no way to run an enterprise. (see blog post: The Second Dumbest Question, Ever)

But just like the fable of the tortoise and the hare, if you slow down a bit, you’ll win that race. If you fly at 310mph in that median business airplane, you can fly from PDX to Gnoss Field in Novato in an even two hours. That enables you to leave your house at 6:30am, and depart Gnoss Field at 12:30pm. You’ll land back at PDX at 2:30pm, and can be at the office by 3:00 so you’ll get to do more than one important thing that day! Your million dollar tortoise time machine not only bought you four hours, it also gave you the peace of mind that if your meeting runs long, you won’t miss your flight, and if your meeting gets out early, you earned more productive time. And that first class meal can’t hold a candle to private aviation catering.

So is that 310mph fast enough? I’d say no, as just like that $20 bottle of Rioja, the best value is probably slightly upmarket, which happens to be 20-30% faster. I’m a huge fan of the 900 series of TBMs, and just about any (but not all) serial number of the Piaggio Avanti.

“Once you’ve flown [privately], returning to commercial flights is like going back to holding hands.” – Warren Buffett, Berkshire Letters 2006

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